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Last game: Game Central
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Georgia 55
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9/4/2010
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Monday, October 05, 2009
Posted by Foltz at 2:16:43 PM
CALVIN OR AJ
Tough defeat on Saturday. Although Georgia had its chances to win, I felt almost certain that LSU was going to come out ahead in the end. It’s the uncomfortable feeling you get when you’re watching Nightmare on Elm Street and you already know that the sequel is out. The good guys will fight Freddy off but eventually he’ll be back in the end to set up the next movie. So, for the sake of opening up another installment of “Why does Georgia have a better record on the road than at home,” and “Go Joe Cox and take Mark Richt with you,” I think I’ll move on to another topic that works more in Georgia’s favor.

There hasn’t been much debate on whether or not AJ Green is better than Calvin Johnson but I think it’s time to start thinking about this argument now that AJ is about to enter the second half of his college career. That’s right, AJ will leave after his junior year and should be a top 5 pick in the NFL draft, too. He won’t impress the scouts with record breaking numbers like Calvin Johnson did at the combines but Green will certainly hold his own in nearly every category to prove he’s the next Randy Moss with a great attitude. Calvin stands at 6’5”, 240lbs, possessing a 45 inch vertical leap, 4.3 speed, great hands, great instincts, and a proven ability to make a tough play seem easy. Those numbers are hard to surpass, and while I think AJ Green is just a hair under all of those numbers, I definitely think his hands, instincts, and playmaking abilities could be better. At any rate, before further analyzing the poking and prodding cattle show that is the NFL combine, I’m more curious to see how well statistically AJ Green has measured up against one of the most esteemed wide receivers to come out of the area in quite some time.

Calvin Johnson had three great years at Georgia Tech. He started catching the eye of many college football fans when he started as a freshman and immediately began catching very errant pass thrown by Reggie Ball. From 2004-2006, he amassed 178 receptions, 2,927 yards, and 28 touchdowns. So far, AJ Green has been equal or more productive in nearly every category as Calvin and Green’s freshman year is a good indication of where he’s headed:

Freshman YEAR REC YDS AVG LNG TD
Johnson 2004 48 837 17.4 51 7
Green 2008 56 963 17.2 54 8

Before you say anything, I agree. Calvin did have Reggie Ball his freshman year while AJ had Matthew Stafford. Okay, let’s compare their sophomore years since Reggie Ball and Joe Cox are a little more equal. We’ll have to base AJ’s sophomore numbers on projections since the season isn’t quite half-way over.

Sophomore YEAR REC YDS AVG LNG TD
Johnson 2005 54 888 16.4 59 6
Green 2009 72 1265 17.6 56 12

By the end of AJ’s illustrious career at Georgia, he should not only pass Calvin in every statistical category, he will have done it against stiffer competition. After two years at Georgia Tech, Calvin Johnson had eight games of 100yds but also had nine games where he either caught no more than two catches or was held under 50 receiving yards. And, in only two of those 100yds games were those numbers against a ranked opponent. AJ Green only has four 100yd games to this point (projected to hit seven by the end of the season) with only three games of two catches or less than 50 receiving yards. He has one 100yd receiving game and missed his second last Saturday afternoon by one yard. If we take a final look at the career numbers of Calvin Johnson and the projected career numbers for AJ Green (including 2010 numbers of 75-1330-17.4-56-14, the results could be staggering:

Career YEAR REC YDS AVG LNG TD
Johnson career totals 178 2927 16.5 66 28
Green career totals 203 3558 17.4 55 34

If you don’t like projections, let’s just look at statistics from both receivers first 17 games of their college careers:

17games YEAR REC YDS AVG LNG TD
Johnson career totals 76 1345 18.5 59 11
Green career totals 86 1490 18.9 56 13

It is fun to run the numbers and see where each player stands but it is equally amazing to see how productive these two receivers were in just their first season and a half of college football. I’m anxious to see how the second half of AJ Green’s career will unfold. If he continues at the current pace, he will leave little doubt who best receiver is. Will AJ Green supplant Calvin Johnson as the most gifted wide receiver in the state of Georgia? He already has.

Let the debate begin. Hey, AJ started it - not me
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COMMENTS:
Monday, October 05, 2009
Posted by Foltz at 2:34:15 PM
OH, and I failed to mention that again, there are detractors that will say Calvin`s potential was unfulfilled because his three year`s involved a third rate quarterback in Reggie Ball. But let`s also keep in mind that AJ Green will spend three years in Athens with three different quarterbacks. That`s not an easy adjustment so both arguments could cancel each other out. Sadly, both of them may finish their incredible college careers with little to show for it as far as conference titles and BSC victories. It`s too late for Calvin but hopefully it isn`t for AJ.

Monday, October 05, 2009
Posted by Dunk at 2:36:36 PM
Wait a minute...you compared Reggie Ball to Joe Cox. Unbelievable! Joe Cox is 10 times better than Reggie Ball. He might not have the same arm strength, but he is a better decision maker and more accurate. Ball was just STUPID! We all know that Johnson would have had better stats if Reggie wasn`t the QB. I remember several games when Ball barely threw to Johnson. You just can`t compare Cox to Ball, but I agree that AJ will finish his career next year and have better stats than Calvin. He will have Murray throwing to him next year, so it will be fun to watch.
Monday, October 05, 2009
Posted by Foltz at 2:48:40 PM
Are you watching the same Joe Cox I am? Don`t blame the offense totally on Bobo. Cox couldn`t throw a ball in the ocean on Saturday and I think his list of dumb mistakes are becoming well-documented. He could barely throw a screen pass against Oklahoma State. He ran out of bounds instead of throwing the ball away, has thrown plenty of awful passes that have ended up interceptions (two for pick 6`s), doesn`t check down on pass plays, has an intentional grounding call and should have had another against LSU (that would have been a safety when we were only up by two), really threw an interception in the end zone against LSU (thank the good Lord for AJ Green), and on the final drive of the game (when we needed him the most) he bobbled the snap and ended up falling on the ball, then he threw a terrible incomplete pass, then topped it off with an interception to ice the game. Wait, what were you trying to debate again?

Monday, October 05, 2009
Posted by Nate at 2:54:12 PM
This was great Foltz... what polynomial interpolation method did you use, Lagrange or Newton?

I don`t agree that Cox is as bad as Ball, but I also don`t agree that Cox is 10 times better. Cox is a decent quarterback who had a very bad game. Ball was just a bad quarterback. My UGA bias requires that I agree that AJ will supplant CJ by the end of his career. The knock on CJ was that, in spite of all his physical and natural abilities, it seemed that a top notch corner could shut him down. Paul Oliver held him to 2 catches one year, and I think Tim Jennings shut him down the year before. AJ just proved this past Saturday that a future NFL corner and safety over top still can`t contain him.

I think this is a much better comparison than the tired Julio Jones v. AJ. IMO, Green is clearly better than Julio at this point.
Monday, October 05, 2009
Posted by Dunk at 3:04:52 PM
So, far Cox has 1209 passing yards with 11 TD`s in the first 5 games (don`t forget he played with the flu against Ok. St). Stafford had 1193 passing yards with 7 TD`s in the first 5 games last year. Granted, Stafford had Moreno, but that just made him better with a more balanced attack. Cox has been forced to throw the ball, because the running game has been terrible. Your "beloved" King has done nothing and Samuel can`t break a tackle. Cox does have 7 interceptions and he needs to work on that, but he is much better than Reggie Ball. Foltz, you can`t compare apples to oranges.

Oh by the way, Cox did check down a receiver before he threw the TD pass to AJ against LSU. You must have been watching the Big Ten when that happened. :)
Monday, October 05, 2009
Posted by Nate at 3:07:31 PM
Cox did check to AJ on that TD pass, but he should have seen that AJ was covered up and checked to his 3rd option which would have been the wide open running back in the flats.

That decision was only good because AJ is so good.
Monday, October 05, 2009
Posted by Foltz at 3:18:58 PM
I used the Boolean method and was only looking for a Boolean answer that centered about Calvin or AJ, not Reggie or Joe. Their last names are associated with male genitalia for a reason and I would like to think it centers around their abilities, or should I say inabilities, at quarterback.

And I could be wrong Nate, but I don`t think Patrick Peterson (the future NFL corner you were referring to) was covering AJ on the end zone play. I think it was Chris Hawkins. Who, by the way, had great coverage on AJ. It just shows AJ`s playmaking ability to take another Joe Cox interception away for a touchdown.

Monday, October 05, 2009
Posted by Dunk at 3:28:29 PM
Cox has to throw the ball to AJ unless he is doubled covered. In single coverage, Cox needs to throw it to AJ as much as possible. We have to get the ball to our best play maker. This is the only way we are going to win this year. Orson Charles will be the go to player next year.
Monday, October 05, 2009
Posted by Nate at 3:36:26 PM
I`m rolling at that male genitalia comment. Nice!

No, you`re not wrong Foltzie, but I wasn`t just referring to that one play. Peterson had good coverage on Green when LSU played man-to-man, but Green still got his catches. It WAS Peterson that Green burned deep early when Cox missed (this was actually the specific play I was thinking of when I made the comment). Peterson knocked a couple balls away, but Green still made several plays. My point was that matched up for the majority of the game against a stellar cover corner, Green still had a big game.

Your boolean answer is "Yes". Cox is better than Ball. Oh wait.
Monday, October 05, 2009
Posted by Foltz at 3:38:42 PM
When Joe Cox is under center, I feel like I am watching Big Ten football. Rewatch the game with a neutral eye and you will see many miscues and inaccurate passes. The end zone touchdown pass was all AJ Green and none of Joe Cox. And I wasn`t comparing apples to oranges. I was comparing diamonds to diamonds. Remember, the article was about Calvin and AJ, not two "Granny" Smith`s in Reggie Ball and Joe Cox. That argument is moot so let`s please stick to the subject. And why will Orson Charles be the go-to player when we have AJ Green coming back?

Monday, October 05, 2009
Posted by Dunk at 3:41:46 PM
Sorry, I mistyped. Charles will be the go to player in 2 years, but he will be a stud next year also.
Monday, October 05, 2009
Posted by Foltz at 4:01:40 PM
Gotcha, Nate. Yes, it was clear to me that Patrick Peterson wasn`t exactly shutting down AJ either which only strenghtens my argument that AJ maybe superior than Calvin, esp. considering how some average corners were able to shut down Calvin so easily, like you also mentioned, Nate.

And you won`t hear me defend Matthew Stafford very much but your statistics between Stafford and Cox are irrelevant. So, David Greene only had 918yds with 8td and 1int in his first five games of his senior year. Is Joe Cox a better quarterback than the winningest college QB of all-time after the 2004 season? Puh-lease! Everyone knows stats are only part of the equation when comparing quarterbacks. The most important stat comes down to wins and losses and David Greene beat LSU in 2004, along with Florida and Georgia Tech. Do you like your chances in Jacksonville with Joe Cox or David Greene? I thought so. QB numbers aren`t near as important than winning or losing. Joe Cox has gotten two decent performances out of the defense this year and he`s 0-2. I`m not completely throwing Joe Cox under the bus because he`s serviceable. But I don`t want serviceable at UGA. I want another gear and I just don`t think he has the ability to get it there.


Monday, October 05, 2009
Posted by Dunk at 4:25:04 PM
Who do you want out there? Logan Gray? Aaron Murray? Zack Mettenberger? Jonathon Baston? Cox is obviously the best man for the job this year. There is no need to waste a year of eligibility on Murray or Mettenberger. A great team has great coaching and I`m just not seeing good coaching or play calling right now. I want Richt calling plays again like he did during the Greene era. Bobo is just not making the cut. He has to improve and learn what type of players are on this Georgia offense.

I agree the most important stat is wins and loses, but the loses are not due to Cox`s game play. He could have made some better throws early, but that happens to every quarterback. At least he didn`t throw the ball out of bounds on 4th down.

By the way, Greene lost to LSU twice in 2003.

Tuesday, October 06, 2009
Posted by Foltz at 8:34:28 AM
Didn`t say I wanted any of them out there. I said serviceable, which means average, and if Georgia insists on being a powerhouse top 10 program, they can`t afford to throw out guys like JT3 and Joe Cox at any point in a season. We must be able to throw the next high-caliber QB on the field year-in,year-out. I guess this proves that Joe may be right about Logan Gray. He should have been the next guy.

If you`re comparing the 2003 LSU team to the 2009 LSU team, you must be out of your mind! Tim Tebow couldn`t beat that LSU defense and this year`s LSU team is hardly unbeatable.

Dunk, you really need to think about my answers before you respond.

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